With less than four months remaining until the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship, betting markets have made challenger Javokhir Sindarov the clear favorite to dethrone reigning champion Gukesh Dommaraju. Most major bookmakers currently price Sindarov at 1.36 (decimal), while Gukesh is available at 3.00, implying the Uzbek grandmaster has around a 73% chance of claiming the title. Prediction markets are slightly more cautious, with Kalshi pricing Sindarov at 1.43 and Polymarket at 1.52, though both still favor the challenger.
This is a rather sharp division, despite four months of time remaining. Based on elo ratings, Sindarov is 4th in the world with 2777, while Gukesh is 30th with 2703. Still, history of the World Chess Championships tell that it is more often than not a 50/50 chance, and possibly it will not be different for the 2026 World Chess Championship.
The FIDE World Championship Match 2026 between reigning World Champion Gukesh D and Challenger Javokhir Sindarov will take place in Geneva, Switzerland, from November 25 to December 15. Both Gukesh, representing India, and Sindarov, representing Uzbekistan, will be 20 years old when the event begins, making it the youngest World Championship contest in history.
Source
Sindarov
Gukesh
Implied probability
bet365
1.36
3.00
73.3% / 33.3%
OLBG
1.36
3.00
73.3% / 33.3%
Kalshi
1.43
3.45
70% / 29%
Polymarket
1.52
2.94
66% / 34%
Lines
1.59
2.70
63% / 37%
More on Gukesh vs Sindarov 2026
28.07.2026 Gukesh vs Sindarov 2026 in Geneva
FIDE President Anand: World Chess Championship 2026 Gukesh vs Sindarov on neutral soil
Absusatorrov: “Gukesh will lose his title in next World Championship match”
Anish Giri: I hope to visit Gukesh vs Sindarov 2026 in Geneva